Because Nobody CAN Do Anything About It

Wed   19 Dec 2007   13:56 by Kevin McGehee 60° and cloudy in Coweta County, GA 4 comments [Nature]

The scientists say so! Climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia report that observed patterns of temperature changes (‘fingerprints’) over the last thirty years are not in accord with what greenhouse models predict and can better be explained by natural factors, such as solar variability. Therefore, climate change is ‘unstoppable’ and cannot be affected or modified by controlling the emission of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, as is proposed in current legislation. These results are in conflict with the conclusions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and also with some recent research publications based on essentially the same data.  However, they are supported by the results of the US-sponsored Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). The report is published in the December 2007 issue of the International Journal of Climatology of the Royal Meteorological Society [DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651].  The authors are Prof. David H. Douglass (Univ. of Rochester), Prof. John R. Christy (Univ. of Alabama), Benjamin D. Pearson (graduate student), and Prof. S. Fred Singer (Univ. of Virginia). The fundamental question is whether the observed warming is natural or anthropogenic (human-caused).  Lead author David Douglass said: “The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, does not show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming.  The inescapable conclusion is that the human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make only a negligible contribution to climate warming.“ Co-author John Christy said: “Satellite data and independent balloon data agree that atmospheric warming trends do not exceed those of the surface.  Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric trend values be 2-3 times greater…“ » New Peer-Reviewed Study Finds ‘Warming is naturally caused and shows no human influence’ How long, d’you suppose, before the True Believers of the Most Holy and Sacrosanct Church of Manmade Climate Change™ demand that the International Journal of Climatology be decertified and designated a Tool of Oil Industry Denialism™? H/t Pablo, in this comment at Protein Wisdom.

Maybe I Should Go into Hurricane Forecasting

Mon   26 Nov 2007   16:59 by Kevin McGehee 66° and cloudy in Coweta County, GA 0 comments [Nature] [Prognosticate THIS!]

‘'The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,‘’ said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center. ‘'The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts,‘’ he said. The numbers provide abundant support for those statements. Just before the season started on June 1, the nationally prominent Gray-Klotzbach team at Colorado State University predicted that 17 named storms would grow into nine hurricanes, five of which would be particularly intense, with winds above 110 mph. A different team at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five intense hurricanes. The actual results for the 2007 season: 14 named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes. That turned a season predicted to be extremely active into one that was about average in number of storms and well below average in total intensity. » Hurricane predictions miss the mark Here’s what I had to say about the 2007 season last December: 2005 was a record-breaking year for hurricane activity. 2006 was unusually quiet. Our cat Mickie could have predicted that 2007 would probably fall somewhere in between those last two years. » 2007: More Hurricanes than 2006 On somebody’s blog about that time, I pointed out that 2005 had been the first hurricane season ever to exceed the number of names on the standard storm-naming list, so of course that year had to be regarded, until proven otherwise, as an outlier rather than a significant data point. It now appears 2005 will not be proven otherwise. It remains possible that future seasons will show it wasn’t a fluke exactly—but serious observers ought to be willing to hold open the possibility that it was, in fact, nothing more than a fluke.

Now, You Had to Know This Was Coming

Sat   24 Nov 2007   17:51 by Kevin McGehee 47° and cloudy in Coweta County, GA 2 comments [Nature]

Forget about the threat that mankind poses to the Earth: our activities may be shortening the life of the universe too. Damned SUVs. The startling claim is made by a pair of American cosmologists investigating the consequences for the cosmos of quantum theory, the most successful theory we have. Over the past few years, cosmologists have taken this powerful theory of what happens at the level of subatomic particles and tried to extend it to understand the universe, since it began in the subatomic realm during the Big Bang. But there is an odd feature of the theory that philosophers and scientists still argue about. In a nutshell, the theory suggests that we change things simply by looking at them and theorists have puzzled over the implications for years. They often illustrate their concerns about what the theory means with mind-boggling experiments, notably Schrödinger’s cat in which, thanks to a fancy experimental set up, the moggy is both alive and dead until someone decides to look, when it either carries on living, or dies. That is, by one interpretation (by another, the universe splits into two, one with a live cat and one with a dead one.) New Scientist reports a worrying new variant as the cosmologists claim that astronomers may have accidentally nudged the universe closer to its death by observing dark energy, a mysterious anti gravity force which is thought to be speeding up the expansion of the cosmos. » Mankind ‘shortening the universe’s life’ I’ve always considered these notions to be artifacts of the very uncertainty that quantum theory supposedly reveals. There’s a point where math as presently constructed simply begins to lose its ability to describe what’s going on, but rather than simply admit they can’t look any deeper into the looking glass, our theorists keep trying to make the numbers work. Somewhere along the line, the variables have so exceeded the known quantities, and are so dependent on accurate values for all the other variables, none of which can be estimated with any degree of (ahem) certainty, that the things they’re telling us now about the universe might as well be the visions of tribal shamans. Anyway, even if the cosmological tea leaves and chicken entrails were susceptible to intelligent influence, who’s to say it’s ours? Why are they so (ahem) certain it couldn’t be that of Someone who—unlike us—actually had something to do with its origin? Just a thought. Update: See the last two paragraphs of the comment here by Ed Minchau. Lately as I’ve been watching the edutainment channels’ shows dealing with the allegedly accelerating expansion of the universe, something very much like that was trying to find voice in my mind. So of course (if you believe the New Scientist twaddle referenced above) by my thinking of it, I made it true. (If you actually go to Ed’s comment and read it you’ll see he would find that last sentence of mine as laughable as I do.)

And a TV Network Will Remake ‘My Mother the Car’

Sat   17 Nov 2007   13:02 by Kevin McGehee 60° and partly cloudy in Coweta County, GA 0 comments [Nature]

In its final and most powerful report, a United Nations panel of scientists meeting here describes the mounting risks of climate change in language that is both more specific and forceful than its previous assessments, according to scientists here. Synthesizing reams of data from its three previous reports, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the first time specifically points out important risks if governments fail to respond: melting ice sheets that could lead to a rapid rise in sea levels and the extinction of large numbers of species brought about by even moderate amounts of warming, on the order of 1 to 3 degrees. » U.N. Report Describes Risks of Inaction on Climate Change Left out of this report are a number of specific bad things that will happen if the UN doesn’t pass a sternly worded resolution against global warming climate change. Elected officials will have to work harder to find phony excuses to raise taxes. Cats will be 0.17% more likely to sharpen their claws on the good drapes and furniture. There will be a detectable, though probably not accurately measurable, decrease in the number of times newspaper reporters will be able to blame a traffic altercation on “road rage.“ It may be possible, however, to offset this decline by reporting increased incidences of “phone rage” in theaters, restaurants, and stores. The earth’s penguin population will enact a space program and relocate to slightly less tropical Neptune. Jet contrails will be observed over portions of the earth that haven’t seen jet contrails since the last time one was observed there. The universe will implode, with women and minorities hardest hit. Most disturbingly of all: if the worst-case scenario comes about, the United States will be inundated with election campaign materials during 2008. Obviously, something’s got to be done, and quickly.

Has Xenu Moved to South America?

Fri   16 Nov 2007   20:34 by Kevin McGehee 34° and fair in Coweta County, GA 0 comments [Nature]

As attentive observers are aware, Xenu has a knack for bringing cold weather everywhere he goes. On October 14, 1997, Vice President Al Gore said,  “For those who argue that global warming is already changing the world’s climate, this year’s El Niño weather front is more than enough evidence”, the audience was told by Gore. In the next day, a report by the San Francisco Chronicle said: “Gore links El Niño to Global Warming”. The Vice President stated at the summit that growing frequency of El Niño episodes could be connected to the gradual heating of the atmosphere caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Ten years later residents in Argentina and Brazil are wondering if this winter will ever end. Buenos Aires recorded this Thursday (November 15th) the lowest November temperature in 90 years. Temperature in the Downtown weather station reached 2.5C. Since records began more than a century ago, only two days had colder lows in November. It was in 1914 (1.6) and 1917 (2.4). And ninety years ago the urban heat island effect was much less pronounced than nowadays.  In Brazil’s southernmost province Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil temperatures fell to 2.3C.  In São Joaquim Monday’s (Nov. 12) temperature was -1.2 C with frost. » Al Gore Wrong Again So I think it’s perfectly reasonable to wonder where he is these days.

This Is Just Getting Sad

Mon   29 Oct 2007   17:57 by Kevin McGehee 61° and sunny in Coweta County, GA 0 comments [Nature]

Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.  During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). For the period of June 1 - TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. » 2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date This time, the emphasis is in the original. When Accu-Weather (motto: “The ‘Accu’ doesn’t necessarily mean ‘Accurate’”) and the rest forecast a quiet hurricane season, maybe that’s when we need to worry.

Heh. Cool.
Fri   12 Oct 2007   21:02 by Kevin McGehee 57° and clear in Coweta County, GA 0 comments [Coweta County] [Nature]	Did you see the temperature reading on this post? Forty degrees Fahrenheit. Nature, that mother—, is trying to fool me into thinking we’re going to have something resembling autumn weather here in subtropical west Georgia. But I’m too smart for her.

They’ll Roo the Day

Wed   10 Oct 2007   11:52 by Kevin McGehee 73° and sunny in Coweta County, GA 2 comments [Wackadoodle] [Nature]

More kangaroos should be slaughtered and eaten to help save the world from global warming, environmental activists say. The controversial call to cut down on beef and serve more of the national symbol on our dinner plates follows a report on curbing greenhouse gas emissions damaging the planet. Greenpeace energy campaigner Mark Wakeham urged Aussies to substitute some red meat for roo to help reduce land clearing and the release of methane gas. “It is one of the lifestyle changes we can make,“ Mr Wakeham said. “Changing our meat consumption habits is a small way to make an impact.“ The eat roo recommendation is contained in a report, Paths to a Low-Carbon Future, commissioned by Greenpeace and released today. » Greenpeace urges kangaroo consumption to fight global warming “So, mate—how’s it taste?“ “Like a cross between bald eagle and giant panda.“ This, after the animal-rights wackos gave Al Gore hell for eating meat.

He Blinds Himself with Science

Sun   23 Sep 2007   16:22 by Kevin McGehee 91° and fair in Chattanooga, TN 1 comment [Here's Your Sign] [Nature]

Did NASA scientist James Hansen, the global warming alarmist in chief, once believe we were headed for . . . an ice age? An old Washington Post story indicates he did. On July 9, 1971, the Post published a story headlined “U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming.“ It told of a prediction by NASA and Columbia University scientist S.I. Rasool. The culprit: man’s use of fossil fuels. The Post reported that Rasool, writing in Science, argued that in “the next 50 years” fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to 10 years, Rasool claimed, “could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.“ Aiding Rasool’s research, the Post reported, was a “computer program developed by Dr. James Hansen,“ who was, according to his resume, a Columbia University research associate at the time. So what about those greenhouse gases that man pumps into the skies? Weren’t they worried about them causing a greenhouse effect that would heat the planet, as Hansen, Al Gore and a host of others so fervently believe today? “They found no need to worry about the carbon dioxide fuel-burning puts in the atmosphere,“ the Post said in the story, which was spotted last week by Washington resident John Lockwood, who was doing research at the Library of Congress and alerted the Washington Times to his finding. Hansen has some explaining to do. » The ‘Old’ Consensus? Ya think?

DON’T JINX IT!!!
Sat   15 Sep 2007   17:35 by Kevin McGehee 80° and fair in Coweta County, GA 0 comments [Coweta County] [Nature]	Supposedly there’s cooler weather on the way to The McGehee Zone World Headquarters. As a matter of fact, the temperature is already sliding downward at a fair clip, and tomorrow it’s not even supposed to get as warm as it is now. I’ll take it. But cool weather at this latitude requires a gentle approach. If you try to reach for it you’ll just spook it and it’ll run away to Ohio.

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